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學(xué)術(shù)看板
學(xué)術(shù)看板

A fractional order SIRS model by the way of generalized continuous time random walk


來(lái)源:數(shù)學(xué)與統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)院   |  文字:張香紅
編輯: 劉曉琪   |  審核:田麗

題 目:A fractional order SIRS model by the way of generalized continuous time random walk

時(shí) 間:2025年4月25日(星期五)15:30

主講人:王瑋明

地 點(diǎn):弘學(xué)樓(第12教學(xué)樓)912

主辦單位:數(shù)學(xué)與統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)院

主講人簡(jiǎn)介:王瑋明,博士,淮陰師范學(xué)院“翔宇學(xué)者”,二級(jí)教授。中國(guó)數(shù)學(xué)會(huì)生物數(shù)學(xué)專(zhuān)委會(huì)常務(wù)理事、副秘書(shū)長(zhǎng)。陜西師范大學(xué)兼職博導(dǎo)。江蘇省十四五“數(shù)學(xué)”重點(diǎn)學(xué)科帶頭人,江蘇省高校科技創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)帶頭人,淮安市傳染病防控及預(yù)警重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室主任。近十年來(lái)專(zhuān)注于傳染病防控的建模分析及預(yù)警研究。

講座簡(jiǎn)介:

In this talk, we propose a novel fractional-order SIRS (frSIRS) model incorporating infection forces under intervention strategies, developed through the framework of generalized continuous-time random walks. The model is first transformed into a system of Volterra integral equations to identify the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) state and the endemic equilibrium (EE) state. Additionally, we introduce a new FV^{-1} method for calculating the basic reproduction number R_0. Next, we establish that R0 serves as a critical threshold governing the model's dynamics: if R_0, the unique DFE is globally asymptotically stable; while if R_0>1, the unique EE is globally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, we apply our findings to two fractional- order SIRS (frSIRS) models incorporating infection forces under various intervention strategies, thereby substantiating our results. From an epidemiological perspective, our analysis reveals several key insights for controlling disease spread: (i) when the death rate is high, it is essential to increase the memory index; (ii) when the recovery rate is high, decreasing the memory index is advisable; and (iii) enhancing psychological or inhibitory effects--factors independent of the death rate, recovery rate, or memory index--can also play a critical role in mitigating disease transmission. These findings offer valuable insights into how the memory index influences disease outbreaks and the overall severity of epidemics.

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